Wednesday, 29 April 2009

The Tories' biggest problem is themselves

The odds on the Tories winning the election are at 1-2. Pretty much a dead-cert.

On current polling, the Conservative Party are predicted to have a majority of between 40-70 seats. Not bad after 3 election defeats, so Mr Cameron et al must be feeling (quietly) pretty good about themselves.

However, one thing is niggling me about the next election result...few people will be that happy about it. Tony Blair was a once in a generation politician and Prime Minister. People were big, big fans of Tony Blair, as much as of the Labour Party.

But nobody is "a big David Cameron fan", and certainly not a "big Gordon Brown/Nick Clegg fan".

As much as it's a shoe-in that Cameron will be Prime Minister (as long as Brown is around), should it not be a more comfortable margin of victory? There is no clamour for Cameron, just a clamour for Brown to go, or at least stop what he's doing.
Nobody is pining for Cameron's policies, nobody is pointing to the Tory direction saying "that is the way we need to go".

It's still within the margin of error that a hung-parliament could be our next and considering the shambles of Brown and the Labour Party, shouldn't an opposition be further ahead? Think of what Cameron is up against...
- Brown openly bottling it about calling an election
- Despite never being elected as PM
- Not giving a referendum on the Constitution/Treaty
- The Iron Chancellor's policies creating most of the financial mess Britain is in
- The debt we are about to take on
- Smeargate
- Open disunity among the Labour Party
- Breaking manifesto pledges
- A party where Harriet Harman is important!!!
- An embarrassing u-turn/failure on MP's expenses
- Continuing the push for ID cards
- and so on...

When you are up against all this and your lead in the polls is less than assured, then surely you have to ask why?

It is because we do not believe David Cameron is 'the next big thing'. After the way Blair swept in and the whole Obama thing, maybe I'm expecting too much, but when/if Cameron becomes the next PM, the country will be relieved, not pleased. There will be no parties, no wave of national unity or a sense of hope in the new direction a new party of Government will bring. There will, instead, be folk saying "phew, thank god that's over".

People will be voting against a present Government, as opposed to voting for a new one. And it is this that should make Cameron worried. Labour, despite all their mischief, misdemeanour and misdirection, are still commanding the votes of swathes of the UK, and only a small change at the top stands in their way of being relevant again. Whether this is before or after the next election, Cameron should be wary either way.


sm753 said...

Back pre-1979 normal politics, then.

I don't think there were huge waves of elation when Heath and Wilson took turns to PM either.

Political Dissuasion said...

Whether or not I expect a PM to get "huge waves of elation", Cameron cannot let it go unnoticed that he is being elected becuase nobody wants Brown. Whether it was Davis, Hague or anyone else, as long as they don't do anything massively wrong, they'll win.

Anonymous said...

It wouldn't matter who was leading Labour they would still lose, Blair would lose the next election if he were still PM.

I think sm753 is right, Thatcher and her true successor Blair were anomalies, although remember Mrs T started quite cautiously. David Cameron will be much more in the mould of past PMs.

This could very well work to his advantage if he makes a success of his premiership as I think Labour are something of a spent force now and it will take a couple of elections for them to recover.