The State of the Union(s)

Who is really in charge? Not wanting to start some paranoid conspiracy theory, but I'm starting to worry about the unions' power over Labour and our embattled PM.

Since the Grangemouth oil refinery strikes, staged courtesy of mega-militant, mega-memberous Unite, this particular union has seemingly not been out of the press, threatening strikes over anything that it can organise a strike for. And more recently, the GMB has noticed something going on over at Unite and decided they want a slice of militancy.

Let's face it, there is very little more politically crushing for a beleaguered Prime Minister, than strikes, never mind a series of strikes, across pretty much every sector.

So when the unions fund the Labour Party and the unions threaten strikes, and the unions are making demands on policy, and Gordon Brown can't risk pissing these folks off, in fear of these two factors, then it's got to worry you who's really making the decisions.

The general secretary of the GMB has said that Gordon Brown's leadership should be challenged, whereas the joint leader of Unite has said changing the leader was "not the solution". If they want to get what they want, then all these two men need to do, two of the most powerful trade unionists in the land, is get together, agree a strategy, bend Gordon Brown over a barrel and fist him til all their trade union fantasies come true. It'd be a fucking coup! It's not happened on the topic of GB's leadership, but on all policy matters, were they to get together, they genuinely could control our PM cos they can control an army of staff across the board.

Do we want someone who's main concern is not pissing off the unions because the party might lose money? A conflict of interest? The non-stop threatening of strike action from these large unions can only put the shits up Gordon Brown, and although they may have rejected unions' demands for less restrictive strike laws, my point is they know that they have that power.

It's cash for laws! It's a scandal! And these unions are making DEMANDS on the Labour Party, and remember The Labour Party = The Government. When Bernie Ecclestone gave Labour £1million and then the tobacco advertising laws revealed F1 got an exception, it was a massive, massive scandal.

So 'Private Interest A' gave Labour money, policy went in 'Private Interest A''s favour...BIG SCANDAL.

But 'Private Interest B' gave Labour money, policy went in 'Private Interest B''s favour... NO SCANDAL.

With GB bending over sideways and the unions rubbering up, we've got to be worried.
Quick, bring back Thatcher before she dies.

Barack Obama - Top of the Pops?

Like when push-pops first came into the world, I got very, very excited. The concept - a lollipop that wasn't on a stick? This new idea really took a hold of me, dreams were dreamt, tears were shed when mum said "no".

But then, when the dream became reality and I finally had one, the taste was nothing really that special. Ok, so it had sugar in it, lots, which meant I was never going to not like it, but it was a massive let down. But in spite of this, even though there were things I liked a lot more, I persevered for weeks, wasting my pocket money chasing a dream, a dream that never reached the hype. Eventually, I realised that I had to let go and go back to stuff I knew was what I wanted. The packaging, the hype, the talk... I had been bought over by an idea.

Barack Obama, is a bit like a push-pop (there's a sentence you won't have heard before!).

I've bought the hype, been taken in by the packaging, and liked how Mr Obama was presented as a package. But I'm now in that stage where I'm persevering, trying it over and over again, waiting for that magical flavour that sets him apart. But so far, I'm yet to be impressed.

Yes, he's a cracking orator, and if I had to change my voice, it'd be a toss-up between him and Alan Rickman. I like him, but is he any good, what are his big ideas and policies and how will he do things differently? Aside from talking to Iran, I'm yet to hear anything special from him, any new ideas which have been laid out in detail for me to understand. He's done a European tour, but what have we, and more importantly the American people, learned? Well, apart from the fact that he can draw a crowd, not much. And fair enough, maybe he's saving the big stuff (and even the medium and smallish stuff) for his American audience, but whether it's Europe, America or speaking to the world as "a citizen of the world", he's going to have to come up with some push for his pop stardom.

Those of you familiar with The West Wing will recognise the phrase 'it's the fortune cookie candidacy' and so far I'm seeing it as a bit like that.

"Mr Obama said co-operation with the UK was crucial over climate change, terrorism and the economy" (BBC), but you tell me any other US President or presidential wannabe or even just a basic official who has said anything to the contrary in the modern era? You tell me any other 'ally' country he's going to go to where he's not going to say exactly the same? And that was really it. Even back in America, or wherever he goes, I'm yet to hear much more than the basic bullet-point skeleton of a domestic policy, foreign policy or world-vision.

Hundreds and thousands may make an ice-cream look pretty, but it's the ice cream that must be good, and unfortunately, worryingly, the coolest candidate's gloss is beginning to melt.

Curran, Curran, Curran, Curran, Currans everywhere

Labour call a recount fearing a Curran mix-up.

People may have doubted me (and Mark McDonald at Granite City) when I said Labour had found a new excuse for losing but my smugness now knows no bounds. I called this as soon as I knew about it and pretty much everyone I spoke to said something along the lines of "don't be stupid".

Well, I ain't stupid, and not just cos my mum says so, but according to Labour, the voters of Glasgow East are obviously too stupid to read.

Me (and Mark McDonald) 1 (each)
Labour 0
Frances Curran + 254 accidental votes (or whatever Labour will undoubtedly claim)
Residents of Glasgow East -4

Ridiculous things to say...

On the BBC, Prof Curtis has just been saying the Conservative gaining 4% (projected) in Glasgow East is a "so what" matter.
He then went on to say that the SNP have been gaining votes at the expense of the Tories.

Que? Quoi? What?

To gain 4% in GLASGOW is massive for the tories. To gain anything in a two-monkey race is unbelievable. To do it with such a useless candidate? Beyond description. This is a big, big vote of confidence (all things being relative) in the Conservative Party, "the Cameron Effect" as John Sopel says, but most of all, of the wonderful force that is Annabel Goldie!

If the SNP are turning around a grand majority and the Conservatives are gaining 4% in hostile territory, then somehow, Curtis must be getting older than he looks at not realising that it's neither of them that took a beating tonight. Ridiculous thing to say.

Well done Conservatives, well done BoldGoldie, and er, "hi" to Davena.

Upon reflection...

Now that Margaret (JK Rowling's mum) Curran has lost, surely she must be under pressure to quit as an MSP? She has shown that given the choice, she wanted the Westminster job over the Scottish Parliament job. Surely, no matter what party, if any, you are from, in an ideal world you would agree that we only want people "working for the people" (quote - Curran) who will make that task their main priority.

Mags now must consider her position. The Leader of the Labour Party in the Scottish Parliament would be expected to 'have a chat' with her, but alas, not possible at the moment.

Which raises another point, presuming she doesn't step down, triggering another by-election for Labour to fail in, will she seriously think she has any chance of standing for the leadership? You know she'll be considering it!

If she stands for it, she has no credibility, or thought for her constituents. First, she says to her Scottish Parliamentary constituents, I don't want to focus on you guys, I've found something better (Westminster). Then she says to the same constituents that, I don't want to focus on you guys, I've found something better (Labour Leadership)? Come off it Mags, do the decent thing, resign.

Your career-credibility is in shreds, will get worse if you stand for leadership so quit and give us bloggers another, twice-the-fun by-election to focus on; we don't get much chum these days.
Glasgow East deserves more than a 5th choice loser doing their second or third choice job.
And don't go blaming Socialist Frances!

Bye Mags, off you pop.

Blogosphere Glasgow East Predictions

As the time ticks by, with many a blogger surely sitting at their computers, waiting to see if they're going to be smug, shocked, embarrassed, right or wrong, I thought I'd collect some interesting data for when the time comes...a mini competition you could say.

This is how just a few bloggers have predicted the majority will swing. Please feel free to add your own.

Political Dissuasion (Me) - Lab 2,433
SNP Tactical Voting - Lab 1,500 (or so)
Kezia Dugdale (if it's sunny, which it was) - Lab 3,000
Scottish Tory Boy - Lab 2,000-2,500
Random Thoughts From an Unarmed Accountant - Lab 10%
Bill Cameron - Lab 5,000-7,000
Birmingham University Conservative Future - SNP 500-700
Malc in the Burgh - SNP 500ish
My mate Beth really sticks her neck out - SCORE DRAW Lab/SNP

Disclaimer: there isn't a prize if you get it right,except for Beth, so don't phone, it's just for fun.

Not long to go now.

Anti-climax

To be honest, in a month's time, I won't care at all who won the Glasgow East by-election, but for now, I'm going to throw my hat into the ring, make a prediction and say some horrible things which make me shudder as I think them.

I'm going to go with, after a few revelations and useless campaign days...

Labour win - 2,433 majority. This is based on absolutely nothing but guesswork, so if I'm a long way off, go easy on me.

And here's the parts that will make me sleepless with intraverted rage...

If you look at it as a two horse race, then Margaret Curran is probably the right choice.
She may be the lesser of two evils, and as much as I truly despise Margaret Curran and everything that comes out of that shrill-toned mouth of hers, but scrape away the party politics she spews out, she'll no doubt give more of a toss about Glasgow East residents than John Mason.

As I've said before, Mason is a greasy, sneaky little shite and the SNP said as much when Salmond took over the campaign.

Against my strong Tory instincts, Davena has been a ridiculously poor choice of candidate. Fair enough they were never going to win, so they won't waste their starting pitcher, but she has been invisible and has failed throughout the campaign to generate a single headline, not one. Even the Lib Dems did that!

And on to the Lib Dems, and if you've read my blog, you'll understand why this is the most sickening bit for me... but Ian Robertson has been a truly impressive candidate. As a party, the Lib Dems are the epitomy of wasteful politics, I'm generally disgusted by everything they do...but Ian Robertson has done himself proud, and to compliment a Lib Dem is making me sweat with self-loathing. At 30 though, I'm sure we'll be seeing him in the future.

If voters made their decisions based on the individual and not the party, I'd have considered campaigning for him. He worked hard, knew what he was talking about the whole way through the campaign, was pro-active in his approach and his debates, and in my opinion, was the best candidate.

But as it was a two-monkey race, the reason for calling this blog Political Dissuasion is further strengthened. From the off, it was only ever going to be the SNP or Labour candidate that won, which meant that as soon as they chose shite candidates, there was no hope of a decent representation for Glasgow East.

So well done Mags, you're the bluebottle on top of all the crap, but against John Mason, you rightly earn your crown.